2022. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. 2022 housing market forecast John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. Others argue the apartments meet the growing demand for high-end housing in Salt Lake City, it's the latest development in what's been an expensive year to find and afford a home. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the Great Recession. I just felt totally iced out, Branca said. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. Homes on the market: 11,172. Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. How far will they fall? REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. Here are the latest figures, The Wests housing crunch began over a decade ago. While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. Statewide, housing . Some, however, say the market needs this correction to reach a more healthy equilibrium between sellers and buyers as well as healthier affordability. With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. The migration during the Pandemic contributed to the increased demand in the Utah housing market and an increase in housing prices. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. Privacy . However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. So I hope the industry is close to right-sized and things can get better from here, Kelman said. Housing prices are deemed overvalued when their local incomes, job market, and economy do not support the sale prices. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Will it pop or deflate?, A U.S. housing bubble is brewing. Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. Login. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. 36 days on the market. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. However, the sale volume has decreased significantly in the past year, with 3,219 houses sold in September 2021, representing a 26.7% decline in year-over-year comparisons. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? Salt Lake City Real Estate Market Forecast, Salt Lake (Utah state) home price prediction. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. Its important to keep a tab on the housing market and current trends. Given the Utah housing market forecast 2022, here are the top real estate markets any wise investor can add to their real estate portfolio. Do not sell or share my personal information. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank initiated an aggressive interest rate hike policy as a means to fight back against inflation. Doing read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. Heres why, 2021: The year of the shocking home price, Utah made a dent on its housing shortage in 2021 but is still 31,000 units short, Buying a house? We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. . Terms . I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. Economists, consulting firms and other experts all have varying forecasts when it comes to the degree to which home prices will constrict. While interest rates remain high, the coming year will likely see continued cooling of the housing market in Utah; however, lack of supply will buffer most markets. The time to purchase your primary residence is today and has almost always been today. Powell, the Feds chairman, has indeed called it a pandemic frenzy housing bubble, but he and other experts all have consistently said its not like 2007 and 2008. Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. Areas of Utah State are also referred to as Northern Utah, SLC, Wasatch Range, and Park City. Cache County Housing Market Trends. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. Thats where it gets tough. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. The Utah housing market is amid a major shift. Thats the story of 2022. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. But its not the bubble we know, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, new home construction. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. They climbed up so high so fast. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. Therefore, experts expect that Utah home prices will slow down their staggering growth and may decline in some areas. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Difference Since Last Month -$ 20,090 ( -3.7%) Key Takeaway The list price of homes in Saint George has decreased by 3.7% since December. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. Windermere Foundation Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. Eskic has a more bearish outlook. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. To ensure a good return on investment, we encourage real estate investors to perform their due diligence and seek out the help of local Utah real estate professionals. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. As the demand for housing decreases as buyers find themselves priced out of the market by the increasing cost of borrowing money or postpone their homebuying plans to preserve their buying power, we can expect Utah housing prices to stabilize or diminish. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? It boasts some of the best snow on planet earth! 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. For further information about the housing market in your area, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Utah Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin Utah Housing Market Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. The West was ground zero for the pandemic housing frenzy and has also been one of the first areas to see home listing prices getting slashed as the market corrects. Utah will see minor year-over-year price declines in the first and second quarter of 2023, but prices will begin to stabilize by the third and fourth quarter, he said. And due to Utah being a robust economic powerhouse, this state will be poised for the quickest and most powerful market shift back to an unbalanced sellers market. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. Utah remains a sellers market as inventory levels have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. Single Family Rentals Facing Challenges in 2023, January 2023 Mortgage Rates: What to Expect, Existing Home Sales Fall in November 2022. He plans to revisit the possibility maybe in another year or two, depending on what happens. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Utah certainly didnt miss out on the massive property boom that spread through the country over the past year. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. Homes are under construction in South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. Wood interjected, saying hes got to defend the Fed. Below is the latest Utah housing market trends analysis. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasnt surprising given seasonal factors. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! What is the housing market like right now? However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. The median home price has increased from $345,000 in September 2019 to $553,500 in September 2022, with a peak of $577,500 in May 2022, representing a staggering 60.43% increase in 36 months, well above the national average. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. So youll find the deals with the homebuilders, but youre not going to find the deals on (existing) homes, Eskic said. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. Utah has had quite a long history of rapid acceleration where house prices are concerned. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. Sign In. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. Even during the 2008 Recession, Utah felt the pain but, comparatively speaking, suffered a less deep economic hit. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. The average annual profit of property investment was: 10.098% in 2018; . He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. 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